Lightweight
5 Rounds
Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, July 28, 2018·Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Canada
Style matchupEddie Alvarez: WrestlervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(55.2%)
Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Eddie Alvarez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Eddie Alvarez has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Eddie Alvarez
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Poirier
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
42
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Eddie Alvarez
oldest →latest
W
vs Gilbert Melendez · Jun 15W
vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Eddie AlvarezMetricDustin Poirier
4.32
Strikes / min
5.24
4.39
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
55%
Strike defense
52%
2.92
TDs / 15 min
1.15
92%
Takedown defense
64%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Eddie AlvarezDustin Poirier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-94.394.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Eddie Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31