Lightweight
3 Rounds
Eddie Alvarez won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 2, 2017·Detroit, Michigan, USA, USA
Style matchupEddie Alvarez: WrestlervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Eddie Alvarez wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Eddie Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Eddie Alvarez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Eddie Alvarez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Eddie Alvarez has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Eddie Alvarez
Red Corner
VS
Justin Gaethje
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
42
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Eddie AlvarezL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Gilbert Melendez · Jun 15W
vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Eddie AlvarezMetricJustin Gaethje
4.32
Strikes / min
6.48
4.39
Strikes absorbed / min
7.05
55%
Strike defense
51%
2.92
TDs / 15 min
0.33
92%
Takedown defense
74%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Eddie AlvarezJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.1-17.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+237.0-237.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.2-2.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Eddie Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15