Flyweight
3 Rounds
Edgar Chairez won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 29, 2025·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Model Prediction: Edgar Chairez wins(60.0%)
Actual result: Edgar Chairez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Edgar Chairez threatens submissions; CJ Vergara has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- CJ Vergara has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Edgar Chairez
Red Corner
VS
CJ Vergara
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
30
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
180.34 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Edgar Chairez
oldest →latest
L
vs Tatsuro Taira · Jul 23W
SUBvs Daniel Lacerda · Feb 24L
vs Joshua Van · Sep 24W
vs Felipe Bunes · Feb 26CJ VergaraL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 22W
KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Mar 23W
vs Vinicius Salvador · Jul 23L
vs Asu Almabayev · Mar 24L
KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Edgar ChairezMetricCJ Vergara
3.65
Strikes / min
5.02
4.75
Strikes absorbed / min
4.69
46%
Strike defense
53%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
38%
Takedown defense
60%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.10Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Edgar ChairezCJ Vergara
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Edgar Chairez(5 fights)CJ Vergara(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.4-2.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+28.0-28.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Edgar Chairez
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights5
CJ Vergara
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights8