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Lightweight

3 Rounds

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Elo1479

Elo1501

Edson BarbozavsEsteban RibovicsUFC Prediction

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Saturday, August 15, 2026Philadelphia, USA

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsEsteban Ribovics: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Esteban Ribovics

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1479

Elo

1501

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Esteban Ribovics

oldest →

KOvs Terrance McKinney · May 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 24

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Mar 25

vs Elves Brener · Aug 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricEsteban Ribovics

4.14

Strikes / min

7.27

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.35

73%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap+1.44

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Esteban Ribovics(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.8|Blue +21.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO70%

Historical win share: Edson Barboza earned 50% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission30%

Limited submission threat from either side.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Esteban Ribovics

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6