Lightweight
3 Rounds
Edson Barboza won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Wednesday, July 16, 2014·Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(51.9%)
Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).
- Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Edson Barboza
Red Corner
VS
Evan Dunham
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
40
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Edson BarbozaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23L
vs Lerone Murphy · May 24L
vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25L
KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Edson BarbozaMetricEvan Dunham
4.14
Strikes / min
5.33
4.68
Strikes absorbed / min
3.54
55%
Strike defense
61%
0.43
TDs / 15 min
1.82
73%
Takedown defense
79%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap+1.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Edson BarbozaEvan Dunham
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Edson Barboza(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+83.0-83.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-154.0154.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Edson Barboza
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights32
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17