Lightweight
5 Rounds
Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 30, 2019·Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(61.2%)
Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Edson Barboza is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Edson Barboza
Red Corner
VS
Justin Gaethje
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
40
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Edson BarbozaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23L
vs Lerone Murphy · May 24L
vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25L
KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Edson BarbozaMetricJustin Gaethje
4.14
Strikes / min
6.48
4.68
Strikes absorbed / min
7.05
55%
Strike defense
51%
0.43
TDs / 15 min
0.33
73%
Takedown defense
74%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Edson BarbozaJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Edson Barboza(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+94.9-94.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.72.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Edson Barboza
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights32
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15