Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Friday, December 11, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsTony Ferguson: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(50.8%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Edson Barboza
Red Corner
VS
Tony Ferguson
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
40
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Edson BarbozaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23L
vs Lerone Murphy · May 24L
vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25L
KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Edson BarbozaMetricTony Ferguson
4.14
Strikes / min
4.91
4.68
Strikes absorbed / min
4.37
55%
Strike defense
55%
0.43
TDs / 15 min
0.39
73%
Takedown defense
66%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.54Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Edson BarbozaTony Ferguson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Edson Barboza(10 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-28.728.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-10.010.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Edson Barboza
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights32
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24