Middleweight
3 Rounds
Elias Theodorou won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 14, 2015·Dallas, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(60.9%)
Actual result: Elias Theodorou wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roger Narvaez has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Roger Narvaez (53.5%).
- Roger Narvaez has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Elias Theodorou
Red Corner
VS
Roger Narvaez
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+305
(25%)
37
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Elias Theodorou
oldest →latest
L
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17W
vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17W
vs Trevor Smith · May 18W
vs Eryk Anders · Dec 18L
vs Derek Brunson · May 19Roger Narvaez
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Patrick Cummins · Jun 14W
vs Luke Barnatt · Nov 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Elias TheodorouMetricRoger Narvaez
4.19
Strikes / min
2.12
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.32
53%
Strike defense
64%
1.27
TDs / 15 min
0.00
59%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.80Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap-1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Elias TheodorouRoger Narvaez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Elias Theodorou(10 fights)Roger Narvaez(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+31.6-31.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.3-2.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Elias Theodorou
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11
Roger Narvaez
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach—
Fights3