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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Elias Theodorou won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1431

Elias TheodorouvsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Elias Theodorou won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupElias Theodorou: Well-roundedvsSam Alvey: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Elias Theodorou wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Elias Theodorou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elias Theodorou at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Elias Theodorou

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1492

Elo

1431

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elias Theodorou

oldest →

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17

vs Trevor Smith · May 18

vs Eryk Anders · Dec 18

vs Derek Brunson · May 19

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elias TheodorouMetricSam Alvey

4.19

Strikes / min

3.28

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

53%

Strike defense

52%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

0.06

59%

Takedown defense

82%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elias TheodorouSam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elias Theodorou(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.0|Blue -61.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -124.0|Blue +124.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elias TheodorouTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

17% acc · 22%

Head

26% acc · 21%

25% acc · 43%

Body

100% acc · 42%

46% acc · 35%

Leg

64% acc · 38%

By position

22% acc · 76%

Distance

47% acc · 63%

82% acc · 24%

Clinch

82% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elias Theodorou rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Elias Theodorou edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:57

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:43

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 141

Sig Strikes

24 / 43

26.3%

Sig Str %

51.7%

87 / 194

Total Strikes

30 / 54

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:40

Ctrl Time

1:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Alvey	3 / 9	3 / 9	0 / 0
1	Elias Theodorou	14 / 59	14 / 59	0 / 0
2	Sam Alvey	9 / 17	13 / 24	0 / 0
2	Elias Theodorou	13 / 38	50 / 76	0 / 2
3	Sam Alvey	12 / 17	14 / 21	0 / 0
3	Elias Theodorou	10 / 44	23 / 59	0 / 2

Elias Theodorou

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23