Lightweight
3 Rounds
Myktybek Orolbai won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 4, 2024·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupElves Brener: Pressure fightervsMyktybek Orolbai: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Elves Brener wins(52.9%)
Actual result: Myktybek Orolbai wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Elves Brener has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Elves Brener
Red Corner
VS
Myktybek Orolbai
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
28
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Elves BrenerL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 23W
KOvs Guram Kutateladze · Jul 23W
KOvs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Nov 23L
KOvs Joel Alvarez · Aug 24L
vs Esteban Ribovics · Aug 25Myktybek OrolbaiW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Uros Medic · Nov 23L
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Oct 24W
SUBvs Tofiq Musayev · Jun 25W
KOvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 25W
vs Chris Curtis · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Elves BrenerMetricMyktybek Orolbai
4.76
Strikes / min
2.78
5.86
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
50%
Strike defense
51%
0.99
TDs / 15 min
8.77
76%
Takedown defense
40%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.10Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Elves BrenerMyktybek Orolbai
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Elves Brener(6 fights)Myktybek Orolbai(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.2-32.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
Elves Brener
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6
Myktybek Orolbai
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6