Middleweight
3 Rounds
Sam Alvey won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Wednesday, July 13, 2016·Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA, USA
Style matchupEric Spicely: Submission grapplervsSam Alvey: Striker
Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.
Model Prediction: Eric Spicely wins(64.9%)
Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Eric Spicely enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Eric Spicely has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Eric Spicely
Red Corner
VS
Sam Alvey
Blue Corner
+235
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-275
(73%)
39
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Eric SpicelyL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Thiago Santos · Sep 16W
SUBvs Alessio Di Chirico · Jan 17L
KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Dec 17L
KOvs Darren Stewart · May 18L
vs Deron Winn · Jun 19Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Eric SpicelyMetricSam Alvey
3.71
Strikes / min
3.28
5.72
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
55%
Strike defense
52%
1.31
TDs / 15 min
0.06
75%
Takedown defense
82%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.01Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Eric SpicelySam Alvey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Eric Spicely(6 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-4.84.8
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+47.8-47.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+50.0-50.0
Eric Spicely
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23