Welterweight
3 Rounds
Erick Silva won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 21, 2015·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupErick Silva: Submission grapplervsJosh Koscheck: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Erick Silva wins(70.3%)
Actual result: Erick Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Josh Koscheck enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Erick Silva threatens submissions; Josh Koscheck has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Josh Koscheck has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Erick Silva
Red Corner
VS
Josh Koscheck
Blue Corner
-460
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+365
(22%)
41
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erick SilvaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Neil Magny · Aug 15L
KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16W
SUBvs Luan Chagas · Sep 16L
KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17L
vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17Josh KoscheckL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Mike Pierce · Feb 12L
vs Johny Hendricks · May 12L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Feb 13L
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Nov 13L
SUBvs Jake Ellenberger · Feb 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erick SilvaMetricJosh Koscheck
2.50
Strikes / min
1.79
4.18
Strikes absorbed / min
2.27
49%
Strike defense
63%
0.85
TDs / 15 min
2.46
56%
Takedown defense
64%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.68Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Erick SilvaJosh Koscheck
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erick Silva(10 fights)Josh Koscheck(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+52.0-52.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Erick Silva
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15
Josh Koscheck
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9