Welterweight
3 Rounds
Erick Silva won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 24, 2016·Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupErick Silva: Submission grapplervsLuan Chagas: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Erick Silva wins(52.2%)
Actual result: Erick Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Erick Silva enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Erick Silva threatens submissions; Luan Chagas has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Luan Chagas has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Luan Chagas has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Erick Silva
Red Corner
VS
Luan Chagas
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
41
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erick SilvaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Josh Koscheck · Mar 15L
vs Neil Magny · Aug 15L
KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16L
KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17L
vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17Luan Chagas
oldest →latest
W
vs Jimmy Wallhead · Jun 17L
KOvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Apr 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erick SilvaMetricLuan Chagas
2.50
Strikes / min
4.16
4.18
Strikes absorbed / min
3.19
49%
Strike defense
62%
0.85
TDs / 15 min
0.32
56%
Takedown defense
85%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.68Δ 2.65 — meaningful gap+0.97
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Erick SilvaLuan Chagas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erick Silva(10 fights)Luan Chagas(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.5-2.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.249.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Erick Silva
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15
Luan Chagas
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3