Lightweight
3 Rounds
Daron Cruickshank won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 10, 2014·Cincinnati, Ohio, USA, USA
Style matchupErik Koch: Submission grapplervsDaron Cruickshank: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Erik Koch wins(53.0%)
Actual result: Daron Cruickshank wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daron Cruickshank enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Daron Cruickshank has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Erik Koch has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Erik Koch
Red Corner
VS
Daron Cruickshank
Blue Corner
-295
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
37
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erik Koch
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Rafaello Oliveira · Feb 14W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16L
vs Clay Guida · Jun 17L
vs Bobby Green · Jan 18W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19Daron CruickshankL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14W
vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14L
SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15L
SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15L
SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erik KochMetricDaron Cruickshank
2.33
Strikes / min
2.88
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
47%
Strike defense
57%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
2.04
81%
Takedown defense
60%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Erik KochDaron Cruickshank
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erik Koch(10 fights)Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-13.213.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Erik Koch
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10
Daron Cruickshank
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights12