Featherweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Poirier won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 31, 2013·Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, USA
Style matchupErik Koch: Submission grapplervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(52.6%)
Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Erik Koch has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Erik Koch
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Poirier
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erik Koch
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16L
vs Clay Guida · Jun 17L
vs Bobby Green · Jan 18W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erik KochMetricDustin Poirier
2.33
Strikes / min
5.24
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
47%
Strike defense
52%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
1.15
81%
Takedown defense
64%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap+0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Erik KochDustin Poirier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erik Koch(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-23.923.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.62.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Erik Koch
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31