Welterweight
3 Rounds
Erik Koch won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 27, 2019·Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Erik Koch wins(71.7%)
Actual result: Erik Koch wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Erik Koch has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).
- Kyle Stewart has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Erik Koch
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Stewart
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erik KochL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Rafaello Oliveira · Feb 14L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16L
vs Clay Guida · Jun 17L
vs Bobby Green · Jan 18Kyle Stewart
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Chance Rencountre · Jan 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erik KochMetricKyle Stewart
2.33
Strikes / min
1.41
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.42
47%
Strike defense
43%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
1.32
81%
Takedown defense
60%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49evenly matched on net striking-1.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Erik KochKyle Stewart
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erik Koch(10 fights)Kyle Stewart(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+357.0-357.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Erik Koch
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10
Kyle Stewart
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2