Featherweight
3 Rounds
Erik Koch won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2011·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupErik Koch: Submission grapplervsRaphael Assuncao: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Erik Koch wins(56.1%)
Actual result: Erik Koch wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Raphael Assuncao has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).
- Erik Koch has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Erik Koch
Red Corner
VS
Raphael Assuncao
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
37
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'5"
180.34 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erik Koch
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16L
vs Clay Guida · Jun 17L
vs Bobby Green · Jan 18W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19Raphael Assuncao
oldest →latest
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20L
KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21W
vs Victor Henry · Oct 22L
SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erik KochMetricRaphael Assuncao
2.33
Strikes / min
3.22
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.50
47%
Strike defense
66%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
1.65
81%
Takedown defense
78%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+0.72
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erik Koch(10 fights)Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Erik Koch
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10
Raphael Assuncao
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights19