Lightweight
3 Rounds
Erik Koch won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Sunday, May 29, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupErik Koch: Submission grapplervsShane Campbell: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Erik Koch wins(50.4%)
Actual result: Erik Koch wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Erik Koch
Red Corner
VS
Shane Campbell
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
37
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erik Koch
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Rafaello Oliveira · Feb 14L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14L
vs Clay Guida · Jun 17L
vs Bobby Green · Jan 18W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19Shane CampbellL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs John Makdessi · Apr 15W
vs Elias Silverio · Aug 15L
vs James Krause · Feb 16L
KOvs Felipe Silva · Aug 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erik KochMetricShane Campbell
2.33
Strikes / min
3.99
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
3.19
47%
Strike defense
55%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
1.36
81%
Takedown defense
82%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Erik KochShane Campbell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erik Koch(10 fights)Shane Campbell(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+12.3-12.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+652.0-652.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Erik Koch
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10
Shane Campbell
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights5