Featherweight
3 Rounds
Francis Marshall won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 28, 2026·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupErik Silva: WrestlervsFrancis Marshall: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Erik Silva wins(67.3%)
Actual result: Francis Marshall wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francis Marshall has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Francis Marshall has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Erik Silva
Red Corner
VS
Francis Marshall
Blue Corner
+570
(15%)
Vegas Odds
-820
(89%)
39
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erik SilvaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs TJ Brown · Dec 22L
KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Feb 24Francis Marshall
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Marcelo Rojo · Dec 22L
vs William Gomis · Apr 23L
KOvs Isaac Dulgarian · Aug 23W
vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 24L
vs Mairon Santos · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erik SilvaMetricFrancis Marshall
2.06
Strikes / min
3.19
1.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.45
40%
Strike defense
55%
3.26
TDs / 15 min
2.71
60%
Takedown defense
88%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Erik SilvaFrancis Marshall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erik Silva(3 fights)Francis Marshall(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.216.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+378.0-378.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Erik Silva
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3
Francis Marshall
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6