Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Erin Blanchfield won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 18, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Erin Blanchfield wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Erin Blanchfield wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Erin Blanchfield has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Erin Blanchfield has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sarah Alpar (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Erin Blanchfield
Red Corner
VS
Sarah Alpar
Blue Corner
-435
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+330
(23%)
27
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'4"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erin BlanchfieldW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Feb 23W
vs Taila Santos · Aug 23L
vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 24W
vs Rose Namajunas · Nov 24W
SUBvs Tracy Cortez · Nov 25Sarah Alpar
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jessica-Rose Clark · Sep 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erin BlanchfieldMetricSarah Alpar
5.24
Strikes / min
2.36
4.25
Strikes absorbed / min
6.06
58%
Strike defense
38%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
1.61
78%
Takedown defense
20%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.99Δ 4.69 — meaningful gap-3.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Erin BlanchfieldSarah Alpar
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erin Blanchfield(9 fights)Sarah Alpar(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.2-16.2
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.5-49.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.0-49.0
Erin Blanchfield
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9
Sarah Alpar
StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights2