Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Ernesta Kareckaite won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 11, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupErnesta Kareckaite: Pressure fightervsNicolle Caliari: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Ernesta Kareckaite wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Ernesta Kareckaite wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ernesta Kareckaite has 81pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Ernesta Kareckaite has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Ernesta Kareckaite
Red Corner
VS
Nicolle Caliari
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
27
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'3"
180.34 cm
Reach
157.48 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ernesta KareckaiteL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Dione Barbosa · May 24L
vs Regina Tarin · Feb 26Nicolle Caliari
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Carli Judice · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ernesta KareckaiteMetricNicolle Caliari
7.28
Strikes / min
3.46
6.47
Strikes absorbed / min
7.01
49%
Strike defense
53%
0.75
TDs / 15 min
2.88
81%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.81Δ 4.36 — meaningful gap-3.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ernesta KareckaiteNicolle Caliari
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ernesta Kareckaite(3 fights)Nicolle Caliari(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.016.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.449.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Ernesta Kareckaite
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3
Nicolle Caliari
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights2