Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Herbert Burns won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, June 6, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupEvan Dunham: Submission grapplervsHerbert Burns: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(55.5%)
Actual result: Herbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Herbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Evan Dunham
Red Corner
VS
Herbert Burns
Blue Corner
+185
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-225
(69%)
44
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Evan DunhamL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Ross Pearson · Jul 15W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18Herbert BurnsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jan 20L
KOvs Daniel Pineda · Aug 20L
KOvs Bill Algeo · Jul 22L
KOvs Julio Arce · Mar 24L
KOvs Jack Jenkins · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Evan DunhamMetricHerbert Burns
5.33
Strikes / min
1.86
3.54
Strikes absorbed / min
5.17
61%
Strike defense
41%
1.82
TDs / 15 min
2.94
79%
Takedown defense
66%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.79Δ 5.10 — meaningful gap-3.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Evan DunhamHerbert Burns
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Evan Dunham(10 fights)Herbert Burns(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.8-5.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+490.0-490.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.71.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+3.3-3.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17
Herbert Burns
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6