Lightweight
3 Rounds
Evan Dunham won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 28, 2012·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Style matchupEvan Dunham: Submission grapplervsNik Lentz: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Evan Dunham has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Evan Dunham
Red Corner
VS
Nik Lentz
Blue Corner
-355
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+320
(24%)
44
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Nik LentzL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18W
vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19L
vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Evan DunhamMetricNik Lentz
5.33
Strikes / min
3.44
3.54
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
61%
Strike defense
50%
1.82
TDs / 15 min
3.30
79%
Takedown defense
43%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.79Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Evan DunhamNik Lentz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Evan Dunham(10 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-42.442.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17
Nik Lentz
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights22