Lightweight
3 Rounds
Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 7, 2018·Brooklyn, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupEvan Dunham: Submission grapplervsOlivier Aubin-Mercier: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(69.5%)
Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Evan Dunham
Red Corner
VS
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
44
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Evan DunhamL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Ross Pearson · Jul 15W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 16W
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Sep 17L
vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18L
vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Evan DunhamMetricOlivier Aubin-Mercier
5.33
Strikes / min
2.48
3.54
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
61%
Strike defense
55%
1.82
TDs / 15 min
2.36
79%
Takedown defense
70%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.79Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Evan DunhamOlivier Aubin-Mercier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Evan Dunham(10 fights)Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-12.912.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+364.0-364.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12