Lightweight
3 Rounds
Evan Dunham won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 17, 2011·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(66.2%)
Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Shamar Bailey has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Evan Dunham
Red Corner
VS
Shamar Bailey
Blue Corner
-415
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+370
(21%)
44
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Shamar Bailey
oldest →latest
W
vs Ryan McGillivray · Jun 11L
KOvs Danny Castillo · Nov 11Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Evan DunhamMetricShamar Bailey
5.33
Strikes / min
1.56
3.54
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
61%
Strike defense
69%
1.82
TDs / 15 min
1.50
79%
Takedown defense
37%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.79Δ 4.14 — meaningful gap-2.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Evan DunhamShamar Bailey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Evan Dunham(10 fights)Shamar Bailey(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-36.036.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.2-2.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17
Shamar Bailey
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3