Lightweight
3 Rounds
Evan Elder won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 15, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupEvan Elder: Pressure fightervsGenaro Valdez: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Evan Elder wins(73.7%)
Actual result: Evan Elder wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Evan Elder (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Evan Elder
Red Corner
VS
Genaro Valdez
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
29
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Evan ElderW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Preston Parsons · Apr 22L
KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 23W
SUBvs Darrius Flowers · Jul 24W
vs Gauge Young · Apr 25Genaro ValdezL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Matt Frevola · Jan 22L
vs Natan Levy · Dec 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Evan ElderMetricGenaro Valdez
5.66
Strikes / min
4.08
4.94
Strikes absorbed / min
7.16
57%
Strike defense
48%
0.48
TDs / 15 min
1.54
40%
Takedown defense
36%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 3.80 — meaningful gap-3.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Evan ElderGenaro Valdez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Evan Elder(5 fights)Genaro Valdez(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.90.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Evan Elder
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5
Genaro Valdez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3