Vicente LuquevsJoel Alvarez

UFC Event · Saturday, October 11, 2025 · Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil

Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Joel Alvarez

Blue Corner

+410

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-650

(87%)

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Career Averages (per fight)

4.8

Sig. Strikes

4.8

0.9

Takedowns

0.2

0.7

Sub Attempts

1.1

Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)

RedElo RatingBlue

+17.4-17.4

RedLayoff (days)Blue

-175.0175.0

RedForm ScoreBlue

-1.21.2

RedStriker ScoreBlue

+0.4-0.4

RedGrappler ScoreBlue

+0.1-0.1

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights10