Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Fabio Maldonado won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 18, 2013·Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Fabio Maldonado wins(69.4%)
Actual result: Fabio Maldonado wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Fabio Maldonado has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Fabio Maldonado has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Fabio Maldonado has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Fabio Maldonado
Red Corner
VS
Roger Hollett
Blue Corner
-265
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
46
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Fabio MaldonadoL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Gian Villante · Mar 14L
KOvs Stipe Miocic · May 14W
KOvs Hans Stringer · Oct 14L
vs Rampage Jackson · Apr 15L
vs Corey Anderson · Nov 15Roger Hollett
oldest →latest
L
vs Matt Hamill · Sep 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Fabio MaldonadoMetricRoger Hollett
5.29
Strikes / min
1.83
4.31
Strikes absorbed / min
6.47
53%
Strike defense
34%
0.44
TDs / 15 min
1.00
61%
Takedown defense
30%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.98Δ 5.62 — meaningful gap-4.64
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Fabio MaldonadoRoger Hollett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Fabio Maldonado(10 fights)Roger Hollett(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-12.912.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+4.2-4.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Fabio Maldonado
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11
Roger Hollett
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2