Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Fabricio Werdum won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 25, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(60.8%)
Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Alexander Gustafsson has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Fabricio Werdum
Red Corner
VS
Alexander Gustafsson
Blue Corner
+260
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-335
(77%)
48
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'5"
195.58 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Fabricio WerdumL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Jul 17W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20Alexander GustafssonL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Sep 16W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Fabricio WerdumMetricAlexander Gustafsson
3.59
Strikes / min
4.03
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.53
55%
Strike defense
51%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
1.53
31%
Takedown defense
83%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Fabricio WerdumAlexander Gustafsson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+9.6-9.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-343.0343.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Fabricio Werdum
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights14
Alexander Gustafsson
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17