Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alistair Overeem won · M-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 8, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsAlistair Overeem: Elusive striker
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(56.9%)
Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Alistair Overeem has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Fabricio Werdum
Red Corner
VS
Alistair Overeem
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
48
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Fabricio Werdum
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20W
SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20Alistair Overeem
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Fabricio WerdumMetricAlistair Overeem
3.59
Strikes / min
3.67
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
55%
Strike defense
57%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
1.42
31%
Takedown defense
73%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.23
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Fabricio WerdumAlistair Overeem
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Alistair Overeem(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.6-32.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+175.0-175.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Fabricio Werdum
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights14
Alistair Overeem
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20