Featherweight
3 Rounds
Kyle Nelson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 16, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupFernando Padilla: Pressure fightervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Fernando Padilla wins(56.2%)
Actual result: Kyle Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Fernando Padilla is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Fernando Padilla has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
- Fernando Padilla has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Fernando Padilla
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Nelson
Blue Corner
-258
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
29
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Fernando Padilla
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 23W
SUBvs Luis Pajuelo · Mar 24L
KOvs Sean Woodson · Dec 24Kyle Nelson
oldest →latest
W
vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Fernando PadillaMetricKyle Nelson
6.07
Strikes / min
3.60
5.74
Strikes absorbed / min
4.58
52%
Strike defense
53%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.18
100%
Takedown defense
66%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.33Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Fernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Fernando Padilla(4 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+45.4-45.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Fernando Padilla
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4
Kyle Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11