Middleweight
3 Rounds
Francis Carmont won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 17, 2012·Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Francis Carmont wins(58.9%)
Actual result: Francis Carmont wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francis Carmont enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Francis Carmont has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).
- Francis Carmont has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Francis Carmont
Red Corner
VS
Tom Lawlor
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+225
(31%)
44
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'0"
198.12 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francis CarmontL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13W
vs Costas Philippou · Sep 13L
vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14L
vs CB Dollaway · May 14L
KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14Tom Lawlor
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Chris Weidman · Nov 11W
KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12W
SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13W
KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15L
vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francis CarmontMetricTom Lawlor
2.22
Strikes / min
2.50
1.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.41
59%
Strike defense
60%
1.79
TDs / 15 min
2.46
73%
Takedown defense
57%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.58evenly matched on net striking+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francis CarmontTom Lawlor
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francis Carmont(9 fights)Tom Lawlor(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+51.7-51.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-57.057.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Francis Carmont
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights9
Tom Lawlor
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8