Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Sunday, February 17, 2019·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Francis Ngannou wins(60.2%)
Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Cain Velasquez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Cain Velasquez has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Francis Ngannou has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Francis Ngannou
Red Corner
VS
Cain Velasquez
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
39
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'1"
210.82 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Nov 18W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22Cain Velasquez
oldest →latest
W
vs Junior Dos Santos · Dec 12W
KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 15W
KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francis NgannouMetricCain Velasquez
2.33
Strikes / min
6.37
2.16
Strikes absorbed / min
2.33
41%
Strike defense
57%
0.76
TDs / 15 min
5.13
71%
Takedown defense
85%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.17Δ 3.87 — meaningful gap+4.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francis NgannouCain Velasquez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francis Ngannou(10 fights)Cain Velasquez(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+6.4-6.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-868.0868.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Francis Ngannou
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14
Cain Velasquez
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights9