Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brad Pickett enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Francisco Rivera has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco RiveraL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Takeya Mizugaki · May 14L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14W
KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15L
SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15 Brad PickettL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Thomas Almeida · Jul 15L
SUBvs Iuri Alcantara · Oct 16L
vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco RiveraMetricBrad Pickett
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.91Δ 2.52 — meaningful gap-1.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Francisco RiveraBrad Pickett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Rivera(10 fights)Brad Pickett(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -2.1|Blue +2.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Francisco RiveraTargetBrad Pickett
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Francisco Rivera edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:03
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Francisco Rivera edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control0:06
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 3Brad Pickett edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control0:12
6Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:47Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
