Lightweight
3 Rounds
Johnny Case won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 13, 2015·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Model Prediction: Francisco Trevino wins(56.2%)
Actual result: Johnny Case wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Johnny Case has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trevino
Red Corner
VS
Johnny Case
Blue Corner
+415
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-525
(84%)
44
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trevino
oldest →latest
W
vs Renee Forte · Mar 14L
KOvs Sage Northcutt · Oct 15Johnny CaseL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Kazuki Tokudome · Sep 14W
KOvs Frankie Perez · Jan 15W
vs Yan Cabral · Nov 15L
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Mar 16L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jun 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrevinoMetricJohnny Case
2.65
Strikes / min
3.95
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
2.66
64%
Strike defense
61%
0.97
TDs / 15 min
1.70
41%
Takedown defense
72%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.23Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+1.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrevinoJohnny Case
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trevino(3 fights)Johnny Case(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.517.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+309.0-309.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Francisco Trevino
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3
Johnny Case
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6