Lightweight
3 Rounds
Sage Northcutt won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 3, 2015·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Francisco Trevino wins(54.9%)
Actual result: Sage Northcutt wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sage Northcutt enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trevino
Red Corner
VS
Sage Northcutt
Blue Corner
+375
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-470
(82%)
44
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trevino
oldest →latest
W
vs Renee Forte · Mar 14L
vs Johnny Case · Jun 15Sage NorthcuttW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16L
SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16W
vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17W
vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18W
KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrevinoMetricSage Northcutt
2.65
Strikes / min
3.58
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
1.96
64%
Strike defense
58%
0.97
TDs / 15 min
1.81
41%
Takedown defense
41%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.23Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+1.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrevinoSage Northcutt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trevino(3 fights)Sage Northcutt(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.448.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Francisco Trevino
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3
Sage Northcutt
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8