Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 21, 2015·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Trinaldo has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
Akbarh Arreola
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
47
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22Akbarh Arreola
oldest →latest
L
vs Tiago Trator · Jul 14W
SUBvs Yves Edwards · Nov 14L
KOvs Jake Matthews · Nov 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricAkbarh Arreola
3.13
Strikes / min
2.32
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
4.01
60%
Strike defense
56%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
1.07
60%
Takedown defense
33%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-1.69
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrinaldoAkbarh Arreola
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Akbarh Arreola(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+31.5-31.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Francisco Trinaldo
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Akbarh Arreola
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4