Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 19, 2013·Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(65.3%)
Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Trinaldo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
CJ Keith
Blue Corner
-440
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+390
(20%)
47
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
185 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22CJ Keith
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ramsey Nijem · Jun 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricCJ Keith
3.13
Strikes / min
0.86
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
1.82
60%
Strike defense
50%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.00
60%
Takedown defense
62%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap-0.96
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrinaldoCJ Keith
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)CJ Keith(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+19.2-19.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-113.0113.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Francisco Trinaldo
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
CJ Keith
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2