Welterweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 7, 2022·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsDanny Roberts: Striker
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(63.6%)
Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Trinaldo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Danny Roberts has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
Danny Roberts
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
47
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →latest
W
vs John Makdessi · Mar 20W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22Danny RobertsL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michel Pereira · May 19W
KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19W
vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22L
KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricDanny Roberts
3.13
Strikes / min
3.18
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
60%
Strike defense
50%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.24
60%
Takedown defense
57%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrinaldoDanny Roberts
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Danny Roberts(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+81.4-81.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Francisco Trinaldo
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Danny Roberts
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14