Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 22, 2018·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(57.2%)
Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Evan Dunham has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
Evan Dunham
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
47
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22Evan DunhamL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Ross Pearson · Jul 15W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricEvan Dunham
3.13
Strikes / min
5.33
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.54
60%
Strike defense
61%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
1.82
60%
Takedown defense
79%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+1.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrinaldoEvan Dunham
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+67.7-67.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+48.0-48.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Francisco Trinaldo
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17