Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 15, 2014·Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsJesse Ronson: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(59.6%)
Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
Jesse Ronson
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
47
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22Jesse RonsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Michel Prazeres · Sep 13L
vs Kevin Lee · Jul 14W
SUBvs Nicolas Dalby · Jul 20L
SUBvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 22L
KOvs Joaquim Silva · Oct 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricJesse Ronson
3.13
Strikes / min
3.54
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.39
60%
Strike defense
57%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.46
60%
Takedown defense
57%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrinaldoJesse Ronson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Jesse Ronson(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.9-35.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+17.0-17.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.5-1.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Francisco Trinaldo
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Jesse Ronson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6