Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Francisco Trinaldo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Kevin Lee has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
- Kevin Lee has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22 Kevin LeeL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricKevin Lee
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Francisco TrinaldoKevin Lee
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +33.3|Blue -33.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Francisco TrinaldoTargetKevin Lee
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Francisco Trinaldo rounds
Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:40
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:43Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:04
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:53Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
