Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Lee won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 11, 2017·Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsKevin Lee: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(56.2%)
Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Francisco Trinaldo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Kevin Lee has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
- Kevin Lee has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Lee
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
47
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22Kevin LeeL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricKevin Lee
3.13
Strikes / min
3.88
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.60
60%
Strike defense
50%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
3.18
60%
Takedown defense
75%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrinaldoKevin Lee
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+42.4-42.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Francisco Trinaldo
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Kevin Lee
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19