Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 18, 2013·Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsMike Rio: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(64.0%)
Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Trinaldo has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
Mike Rio
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
47
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22Mike RioL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs John Cofer · Dec 12L
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Oct 13L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · Jan 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricMike Rio
3.13
Strikes / min
1.68
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
60%
Strike defense
53%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
2.58
60%
Takedown defense
0%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Mike Rio(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Francisco Trinaldo
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Mike Rio
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4