Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 24, 2016·Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsPaul Felder: Striker
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(63.9%)
Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Trinaldo has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
Paul Felder
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
47
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22Paul FelderL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Mike Perry · Jul 18W
vs James Vick · Feb 19W
vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19L
vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20L
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricPaul Felder
3.13
Strikes / min
3.70
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
60%
Strike defense
48%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.29
60%
Takedown defense
64%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrinaldoPaul Felder
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+74.7-74.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+15.0-15.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Francisco Trinaldo
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Paul Felder
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15