Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 14, 2016·Curitiba, Parana, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsYancy Medeiros: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(72.0%)
Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Yancy Medeiros enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Francisco Trinaldo has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
- Yancy Medeiros has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
Yancy Medeiros
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
47
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22Yancy MedeirosL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 17L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 18L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19L
vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20L
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Francisco TrinaldoMetricYancy Medeiros
3.13
Strikes / min
4.36
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
5.67
60%
Strike defense
47%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.33
60%
Takedown defense
73%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.31
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Francisco TrinaldoYancy Medeiros
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+84.1-84.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-36.036.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Francisco Trinaldo
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26
Yancy Medeiros
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14