Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Frank Mir won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 28, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Frank Mir wins(56.9%)
Actual result: Frank Mir wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Frank Mir has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Frank Mir (53.5%).
- Frank Mir has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Frank Mir
Red Corner
VS
Roy Nelson
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
46
Age
49
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'0"
200.66 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Frank MirL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Feb 14W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Feb 15W
KOvs Todd Duffee · Jul 15L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 15L
KOvs Mark Hunt · Mar 16Roy Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Frank MirMetricRoy Nelson
2.18
Strikes / min
2.18
3.84
Strikes absorbed / min
4.79
38%
Strike defense
46%
2.02
TDs / 15 min
1.14
54%
Takedown defense
65%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.66evenly matched on net striking-2.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Frank MirRoy Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Frank Mir(10 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-49.049.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Frank Mir
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights12
Roy Nelson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights18