Featherweight
3 Rounds
Brian Ortega won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 3, 2018·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Frankie Edgar wins(51.0%)
Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Frankie Edgar has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Frankie Edgar
Red Corner
VS
Brian Ortega
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
44
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'6"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Frankie EdgarL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21L
KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Frankie EdgarMetricBrian Ortega
3.77
Strikes / min
3.84
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
6.38
65%
Strike defense
49%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
0.93
65%
Takedown defense
54%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95Δ 3.49 — meaningful gap-2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Frankie EdgarBrian Ortega
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.2-15.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+210.0-210.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.1-2.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Frankie Edgar
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights22
Brian Ortega
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13