Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gabe Green won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 17, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGabe Green: Pressure fightervsMatheus Camilo: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Matheus Camilo wins(51.2%)
Actual result: Gabe Green wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Camilo has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Gabe Green has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gabe Green (52.9%).
- Gabe Green has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Gabe Green
Red Corner
VS
Matheus Camilo
Blue Corner
+158
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-188
(65%)
33
Age
25
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gabe GreenL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · May 20W
vs Philip Rowe · Feb 21W
KOvs Yohan Lainesse · Apr 22L
vs Ian Garry · Jul 22L
KOvs Bryan Battle · May 23Matheus Camilo
oldest →latest
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gabe GreenMetricMatheus Camilo
5.60
Strikes / min
2.19
6.19
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
47%
Strike defense
64%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
4.43
50%
Takedown defense
0%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.59evenly matched on net striking-1.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gabe GreenMatheus Camilo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gabe Green(6 fights)Matheus Camilo(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.314.3
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Gabe Green
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6
Matheus Camilo
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2