Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Matt Mitrione won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 13, 2014·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupGabriel Gonzaga: WrestlervsMatt Mitrione: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(53.7%)
Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Gabriel Gonzaga has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Gabriel Gonzaga threatens submissions; Matt Mitrione has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
- Matt Mitrione has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Gabriel Gonzaga
Red Corner
VS
Matt Mitrione
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
47
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'2"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
208.28 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gabriel Gonzaga
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Oct 13L
vs Stipe Miocic · Jan 14L
vs Mirko Cro Cop · Apr 15W
vs Konstantin Erokhin · Dec 15L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Apr 16Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brendan Schaub · Sep 13W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gabriel GonzagaMetricMatt Mitrione
2.12
Strikes / min
3.55
2.94
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
57%
Strike defense
64%
2.80
TDs / 15 min
0.00
66%
Takedown defense
55%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.82Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gabriel GonzagaMatt Mitrione
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gabriel Gonzaga(10 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-41.341.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+223.0-223.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Gabriel Gonzaga
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12
Matt Mitrione
StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights13