Middleweight
3 Rounds
Gegard Mousasi won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 27, 2016·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupGegard Mousasi: Submission grapplervsThales Leites: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Gegard Mousasi wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gegard Mousasi enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Gegard Mousasi has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Gegard Mousasi has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Gegard Mousasi
Red Corner
VS
Thales Leites
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
40
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gegard MousasiW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Sep 15W
KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16W
KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17Thales Leites
oldest →latest
L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16W
vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17L
vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17L
KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18W
vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gegard MousasiMetricThales Leites
3.75
Strikes / min
2.13
1.21
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
68%
Strike defense
52%
1.59
TDs / 15 min
2.10
59%
Takedown defense
30%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.54Δ 3.40 — meaningful gap-0.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gegard MousasiThales Leites
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)Thales Leites(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-51.551.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Gegard Mousasi
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12
Thales Leites
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights13